This map shows the nine departments of Bolivia. Each deparment has a prefect. This is superficially comparable to the American States and their governors.

Four of the departments, those marked with a blue half moon, are referred to jointly as the Media Luna, or Half Moon. The Media Luna are currently in strong opposition to the current president, Evo Morales, and his political party, MAS – Movimiento al Socialismo, or Movement towards Socialism. Evo and the administrative capital of Bolivia are located in La Paz.

Chuquisaca is the seat of Sucre, the constitutional capital of Bolivia. Chuquisaca is a bit of a toss-up in its political leanings; not traditionally part of the Media Luna, but unwilling to lose its constitutional and historical position as having the primary capital in its capital city of Sucre, which is what MAS would prefer.

Cochabamba is traditionally a neutral location. Little violence hits Cochabamba, and usually the elections are extremely close. Neither MAS nor the opposition have a strong foothold here. Cochabambinos tend to be rather like Texans; Cochabambinos care mostly about the condition of Cochabamba.

We’re located in the city of Cochabamba, which is the capital of the department of Cochabamba. We’re approximately 8500ft above sea level. Although we are very high up, the city is located in a valley bowl surrounded by mountains. Three solid “highway” passes exist which lead outside of the valley towards the Chapare (countryside, essentially) and the other departments.

The Media Luna departments border Argentina and Brazil. Unfortunately, in blowing the natural gas pipelines to those countries which imported Bolivian natural gas, the Media Luna has made political enemies of them. No foreign support there.

Evo / MAS have the strong support of Chavez in Venezuela. Chavez has committed his support politically and militarily to Evo. Venezuelan military are currently in parts of Bolivia.

The Media Luna have more or less closed the domestic borders to the other departments. Exports from those departments have been ceased. Gasoline and beef are those which chiefly affect Cochabamba.

Active violence is occurring in the Media Luna departments. The violence is incited by both MAS and Media Luna.

Now then. Let’s evaluate our position. We’re in the center of Cochabamba. The Bolivian military is currently in the Pando. In order to defeat the Media Luna, the military needs to stay a fairly intact force. They will probably opt to enter the Beni, followed by Santa Cruz, and then down through Tarija if they deem it necessary. They could cut through Cochabamba from La Paz in order to get to Santa Cruz, but, a) nothing really seems to be gained by this, b) it would split the strength of the attack, and c) it would alienate the people of Cochabamba who have heretofor been pretty neutral.

That’s why we’re staying for now. The physical danger is out on the street, and that’s reasonably handled by additional safety measures like only leaving our gates in groups and remaining armed with police nightsticks when we close and open the gate for entering students. For us the largest interference is on the political level more than anything else.

Issues:

• The Anti-Evo region is in violent protest, possibly even secession.
• They’re not doing it intelligently – so they have made enemies of Brazil and Argentina.
• MAS (Pro-Evo, simplistically) is possibly inciting further violence.
• Evo might send in military troops.
• Chavez has stated that if Evo is deposed, he will send in Venezuelan troops.
• Brazil and Argentina are siding with Evo because the opposition have shut down vital natural gas exports to those nations.
• Brazil is preparing an evacuation for its citizens.
• Bolivia and the United States have expelled each others’ diplomatic teams. Venezuela has expelled the U.S. ambassador as well.
• The U.S. embassy is closed over the weekend for “training”.
• The DEA has been expelled from the country-side.
• It’s possible that the DEA will leave entirely.

The DEA is the only official evac option we have. If they leave, so does our protected evac. The State Department have already stated that no evacs will be conducted here. We, and the other gringos here, will be on our own.

Evacuation requires:

• Spending $10,000-20,000 to go… nowhere. Maybe the US, maybe Brazil (temporarily), maybe Paraguay. Unknown.
• Putting our dogs to sleep.
• Losing our home, vehicle, and any property not taken with us.
• Possibly not being allowed to return to Bolivia.
• If we’re gone for more than 90 days, then my family’s 4-year visa process to earn permanent visas will have to be completely restarted, which is a loss of over $7,000.

All of which would probably be for nothing. Cochabamba doesn’t usually get hit with the violence. What we are definitely going to experience, and are already experiencing, is transportation and food shortages.

No gasoline exists in the city. We’ve got 3/4 of a tank in the minivan. Most of the taxis here, luckily, operate off of natural gas. As of yesterday morning that was still available. No beef is being imported. One store received beef by plane yesterday, and we purchased about twenty kilos at a 420% rise above usual costs. These are both very survivable problems.

Our problem, here, is that the cost (practical more than money… God always provides the money when necessary, we’ve seen that time and again) for the safety of leaving for a little while is possibly our entire ministry and life here. Do we bank on safety and lose everything (plus putting down the dogs), or do we hunker down in faith? Further, in which area does God want us to have faith – our safety (if we stay) or the preservation of our ministry (if we go)?

One element for prayer is that we’ll work out some solution for my passport. I don’t have it – it’s in La Paz, Evo capital. If we go, then the embassy will have to get an emergency passport to me. If we don’t go, then it’s not a problem. If I take it out now, we risk my having to spend an addition $250 to restart my student visa. On a gamble.

We will evacuate if:

• Physical danger exists.
• We are unable to obtain basic food or water.
• We are expelled by Bolivian government.
• We are ordered out by the US government.

But like I said. Right now, all is well, and that probably will not change for Cochabamba city.

A meeting was recently held in which the leaders of the Opposition movement and Evo Morales, president of Bolivia, were scheduled to discuss solutions and compromises in light of the recent referendums. The opposition leaders attended. Evo did not; Evo sent a low-level flunky in his stead. The opposition closed the session and returned to their respective locations.

Santa Cruz is, essentially, taking the attitude of – “Fine. We can the blockade game, too. You [Evo, et al.] have three days.”

This means, for example, that:

• The roads from Santa Cruz to the non-opposition departments, including neutral/stuck-in-the-middle Cochabamba, are closed.
• The borders to Argentina and Brazil from the opposition departments are closed.
• Gasoline lines from Santa Cruz to the non-opposition departments are closed.

Pragmatically, this affects our family’s life in a couple of ways:

• Most of the beef in Cochabamba comes from Santa Cruz and Argentina. The grocery stores and butchers are selling just chicken at the moment. Our preferred butcher, which is seemingly ritzier than the others with its nice building and clean environment, but is in fact cheaper than anywhere but La Cancha, is planning to fly the meat in from Santa Cruz. This means that although some beef will be coming in by plane, it will be a) in short supply, and b) much more expensive.
• Gasoline is being rationed today and tomorrow, after which it will probably not be available at all. Our car is gasoline only. The government is providing free conversions to natural gas, but that will require gutting the car of its A/C, power steering, etc. We’ll wait, thanks.

Politically, Bolivia could be reaching a breaking point. Up until now, the leaders of the opposition have been refusing to make too many ultimatums in preference to a desire for negotiation and, to a certain degree, a willingness to compromise. They’ve sat with the mediating organizations. They’ve kept their autonomy movement limited to politics and words. They agreed to the August referendums. After Evo’s extreme, and frankly silly, rudeness by sending a flunky instead of attending the meeting himself as promised, the opposition have made their ultimatum:

“Agree to our terms, or…”

Public buildings are being stormed. Borders and roads are blockaded. Hey, this sounds familiar – is this not extremely similar to how Evo led MAS in 2003/4 and 2005 in the Gas Wars and the run-up to the presidential election? The difference is that Evo and the Masistas could just sit in the way, cause problems, and have protests. The opposition this time is made of political bodies -  whole political departments. Evo is considering sending in the military… which would cause him to lose all credibility and would escalate the situation even further. News reports are filtering in of people caught inciting violence under the banner of the opposition – but when investigated, they’re members of MAS. Both sides are in on this.